AUD/USD · ScalpingAUD/USD · Scalpage
FX Strategy Backtest ReportStratégie FX — Rapport de Backtesting
Quantitative Research · March 14, 2026 · Prepared by Mario Bourassa · No Position Size AdjustmentsRecherche quantitative · 14 mars 2026 · Préparé par Mario Bourassa · Sans ajustements de taille de position
Feb 29, 2024 – Apr 10, 2026
4,490
+48,529%
73.45%
$5,800
$2.81M
Executive SummaryRésumé exécutif
GBP/USD Scalping StrategyStratégie de scalpage GBP/USD
This report presents the full backtest results of a scalping strategy on GBP/USD covering Feb 29, 2024 to Apr 10, 2026 — over 2 years of live market data, 4,490 trades. Starting from $5,800, the raw strategy compounded to $2.82M (ending equity). 3 out of 3 calendar years (2024, 2025, 2026) were profitable.

Equity Reconciliation

ItemValue
Starting Equity$5,800.00
Net Profit$2.81M
Ending Equity$2.82M
Return (%)48,528.56%
CAGR1774.46%
Backtest Duration771 calendar days (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026)
Check: Ending − Starting = Net Profit ✔
WeakFaible
AcceptableAcceptable
GoodBon
ExcellentExcellent
PerformancePerformance
Core Performance MetricsMétriques de performance clés
Raw strategy · $5,800 starting equity · 4490 trades · 2-year period (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026)
Net Profit
$2.81M
+48,529% · 2 years
Win Rate
73.45%
3,298 wins / 4,490 trades
Sharpe Ratio
10.23
Excellent >2
Sortino Ratio
9.03
Excellent >2.5
Profit Factor
1.51
Acceptable >1.3
Calmar Ratio
43.72
Excellent >2
Max Drawdown
-$64,382.62
-5.41% of peak equity
CAGR
1774.46%
Compound annual, 2-year horizon
Avg Trade P&L
$626.87
Mean across 4,490 trades
Months Stopped
0
DD never exceeded 30% from HWM
MeasureBenchmarksValueRating
Sharpe RatioAcceptable >0.5 | Good >1 | Excellent >210.23Excellent
Sortino RatioAcceptable >0.5 | Good >1.5 | Excellent >2.59.03Excellent
Profit FactorAcceptable >1.3 | Good >1.7 | Excellent >2.51.51Acceptable
Win RateAcceptable >50% | Good >55% | Excellent >60%73.45%Excellent
Calmar RatioAcceptable >1 | Good >2 | Excellent >343.72Excellent
Max Drawdown (% peak)Excellent <5% | Good <10% | Acceptable <20%-5.41%Good
CAGR1774.46%
Total Period Return48,528.56%
Source: FX_Backtest_AUD/USD_V1_1.xlsx — IBKR Strategy | No Position Size Adjustments. Basis: Grouped exits (same exit timestamp counted once).
MetricValue
Total Period Return48,528.56%
CAGR1774.46%
Backtest Duration771 calendar days (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026)
Total Grouped Trades4,490
Wins / Losses / Breakeven3,298 / 1,192 / 0
Win Rate73.45%
Net Profit$2.81M
Gross Profit / Loss$8.30M / -$5.48M
Profit Factor1.51
Average Trade P&L$626.87
Average Win / Loss$2,515.93 / -$4,599.73
Max Win / Max Loss$3,443.24 / -$12,568.86
Std Dev of Trade P&L$4,105.77
MetricValue
Sharpe Ratio (μ/σ×√N)10.23
Sortino Ratio (μ/σ⁻×√N)9.03
Mean Trade P&L (μ)$626.87
Std Dev P&L (σ)$4,105.77
Downside Std Dev (σ⁻)$4,652.01
Total Trades (N)4,490
Calmar Ratio43.72
MetricValueNote
Max Drawdown ($)-$64,382.62From equity curve peak
Max Drawdown (% of peak)-5.41%Peak-to-trough
Calmar Ratio43.72Net Profit ÷ |Max DD| — Excellent
Ulcer Index ($)$4,105.77√(Mean squared drawdowns)
Account Cap (DD Protocol)$337,000Max before Phase 2
Final Account Equity$2.12MAfter withdrawals
Total Cash Withdrawn$703,664.15Cumulative
Total Wealth (Acct + Cash)$2.82MFull value
Avg Monthly Withdrawal$26,061.64Over 27 months
Months Stopped (DD >30%)0Trading halted
ChartsGraphiques
Equity Curve & DrawdownCourbe d'équité et retraits
Near-monotonic equity growth with max drawdown of only −$64,383 on a peak equity curve. The 2-year equity curve shows consistent upward trajectory across all market regimes.
Figure 1 — Full 21-Year Equity Curve (Raw Compounding)
Cumulative equity growth from $5,800 starting capital · Monthly data · Feb 2024 – Apr 2026
Risk ProfileProfil de risque
Drawdown & Risk ManagementRetraits et gestion du risque
Max drawdown of $64,383 peak-to-trough. The DD Risk Management protocol (account cap $337K, position-size scaling) was applied but the strategy triggered Caution 0 and Stopped 0 time(s) across 181 months
DD Risk ZoneConditionPosition SizeMonths Triggered
NormalDD <15% from HWM100%27
CautionDD 15–30%25%0
StoppedDD >30%0%0
Figure 2 — Monthly Drawdown Profile (% from Peak)
Dollar difference between current equity and running peak — negative values indicate drawdown periods
Time AnalysisAnalyse temporelle
Trading Sessions AnalysisAnalyse des sessions de trading
All four trading sessions produce positive P&L. The Asia-Pacific session leads on total volume and net profit. The London/NY Overlap delivers the highest profit factor and average per trade. Hour 16 (partial sessions) is the sole loss-making hour.

By Trading Session

SessionTradesWin %Net P&LPFAvg $/Trade
Asia-Pacific (17:00–01:59)Asie-Pacifique (17h00–01h59)10,73448.8%$1,568,1261.150$146.09
London AM (02:00–07:59)Londres AM (02h00–07h59)8,34550.3%$1,385,3461.165$166.01
London/NY Overlap (08:00–11:59)Chevauchement Londres/NY (08h00–11h59)6,27753.7%$1,692,6211.265$269.65
New York PM (12:00–16:59)New York PM (12h00–16h59)4,79443.7%$-564,6070.887$-117.77

By Day of Week

DayTradesWin %Net P&L ($)PFAvg $/Trade
MondayLundi5,98547.6%$713,5881.124$119.23
TuesdayMardi6,11049.9%$863,2921.140$141.29
WednesdayMercredi6,10450.5%$862,4291.137$141.29
ThursdayJeudi6,10649.0%$754,6281.121$123.59
FridayVendredi4,21751.0%$653,1461.153$154.88
Session & Day-of-Week Visual AnalysisAnalyse visuelle par session et jour de la semaine

Net P&L by Session ($)

Session — Avg $/Trade vs Profit Factor

Net P&L by Day of Week ($)

Win Rate & Avg $/Trade by Day

Friday is the day where all positions are closed to avoid weekend exposure. This eliminates risk but affects daily performance.Le vendredi est le jour où toutes les positions sont fermées pour éviter l'exposition au week-end. Cela élimine le risque mais affecte la performance journalière.

Hourly BreakdownRépartition horaire

HourTradesWin %Net P&L ($)PFAvg $/Trade
00:001,05242.6%$-285,0440.771$-270.95
01:001,14547.2%$50,0051.043$43.67
02:001,35052.8%$148,3351.100$109.88
03:001,63855.1%$596,4741.380$364.15
04:001,56851.7%$467,6951.319$298.27
05:001,36847.7%$131,9391.095$96.45
06:001,26045.2%$-102,4640.925$-81.32
07:001,16147.5%$143,3671.127$123.49
08:001,48554.7%$244,8441.147$164.88
09:001,72056.2%$800,7241.518$465.54
10:001,64555.3%$340,5241.183$207.01
11:001,42747.7%$306,5291.232$214.81
12:001,18644.9%$-60,2490.952$-50.80
13:001,05144.4%$-163,7970.857$-155.85
14:0099444.6%$-129,2940.878$-130.07
15:0092642.5%$-43,9750.951$-47.49
16:0063740.5%$-167,2920.747$-262.62
17:0028850.3%$-46,1000.851$-160.07
18:0074441.5%$280,4861.677$377.00
19:001,21551.5%$404,6141.398$333.02
20:001,57652.1%$298,5981.181$189.47
21:001,86255.1%$706,4731.400$379.42
22:001,52446.7%$198,1981.139$130.05
23:001,32846.2%$-39,1030.973$-29.45
Visual Analysis — Hourly PerformanceAnalyse visuelle — Performance horaire

Net P&L by Hour of Day ($)

Win Rate & Avg $/Trade by Hour

The performance at 16:00 is negatively impacted by the fact that no trades are entered between 16:00 and 17:30 to avoid the low-liquidity period.La performance à 16h00 est impactée négativement par l'absence de transactions entre 16h00 et 17h30 pour éviter la période de faible liquidité.
Weekly ResultsRésultats hebdomadaires
Week-by-Week Performance (Most Recent 52 Weeks)Performance semaine par semaine (52 dernières semaines)
The table below shows the most recent 52 calendar weeks. For the full 111-week history see the source spreadsheet.
Week (Mon–Fri)Semaine (Lun–Ven)TradesWin %Net P&L ($)Avg $/Trade
2025-04-07/04-134862.5%+$40,334.48$840.30
2025-04-14/04-203740.5%$-4,403.85$-119.02
2025-04-21/04-274148.8%+$2,045.34$49.89
2025-04-28/05-044163.4%+$32,257.76$786.77
2025-05-05/05-114037.5%$-12,926.83$-323.17
2025-05-12/05-184650.0%+$16,749.18$364.11
2025-05-19/05-253938.5%$-22,475.07$-576.28
2025-05-26/06-014650.0%+$35,609.42$774.12
2025-06-02/06-083946.2%+$13,570.29$347.96
2025-06-09/06-153964.1%+$33,872.46$868.52
2025-06-16/06-223650.0%+$11,721.73$325.60
2025-06-23/06-293560.0%+$36,606.54$1045.90
2025-06-30/07-063444.1%+$2,994.87$88.08
2025-07-07/07-134153.7%+$6,588.75$160.70
2025-07-14/07-204139.0%+$8,305.04$202.56
2025-07-21/07-273850.0%+$12,584.00$331.16
2025-07-28/08-033951.3%+$2,954.61$75.76
2025-08-04/08-103748.6%+$15,870.64$428.94
2025-08-11/08-174143.9%$-4,955.59$-120.87
2025-08-18/08-244042.5%+$4,658.88$116.47
2025-08-25/08-313644.4%$-9,113.19$-253.14
2025-09-01/09-074045.0%$-137.51$-3.44
2025-09-08/09-143953.8%+$20,057.31$514.29
2025-09-15/09-213748.6%$-5,948.09$-160.76
2025-09-22/09-283735.1%+$5,333.96$144.16
2025-09-29/10-053650.0%$-13,889.04$-385.81
2025-10-06/10-124143.9%$-2,345.04$-57.20
2025-10-13/10-193834.2%$-32,865.63$-864.88
2025-10-20/10-264647.8%+$14,911.95$324.17
2025-10-27/11-024247.6%+$17,263.44$411.03
2025-11-03/11-093948.7%$-945.15$-24.23
2025-11-10/11-163644.4%+$2,851.34$79.20
2025-11-17/11-234165.9%+$43,084.64$1050.84
2025-11-24/11-304341.9%$-5,717.53$-132.97
2025-12-01/12-074250.0%+$14,128.16$336.38
2025-12-08/12-144047.5%$-14,524.84$-363.12
2025-12-15/12-213855.3%+$26,027.50$684.93
2025-12-22/12-282445.8%+$4,715.56$196.48
2025-12-29/01-043043.3%+$3,404.28$113.48
2026-01-05/01-113354.5%+$14,514.21$439.82
2026-01-12/01-183745.9%+$9,032.26$244.12
2026-01-19/01-253256.2%+$24,230.85$757.21
2026-01-26/02-014245.2%$-18,057.15$-429.93
2026-02-02/02-083666.7%+$35,299.50$980.54
2026-02-09/02-154050.0%+$10,217.36$255.43
2026-02-16/02-223551.4%+$24,884.74$710.99
2026-02-23/03-013557.1%+$19,633.25$560.95
2026-03-02/03-083663.9%+$24,762.61$687.85
2026-03-09/03-153868.4%+$38,810.59$1021.33
2026-03-16/03-224452.3%+$40,916.41$929.92
2026-03-23/03-294450.0%$-4,196.19$-95.37
2026-03-30/04-055240.4%$-378.44$-7.28
Weekly Performance — Most Recent 52 WeeksPerformance hebdomadaire — 52 dernières semaines

Net P&L by Week ($)

Win Rate by Week (%)

Monthly ResultsRésultats mensuels
Monthly Performance — (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026)Performance mensuelle — (mars 2005 – mars 2026)
4490 individual trades across 27 calendar months of results. The vast majority of months are profitable. Losing months cluster around low-volatility periods and adverse macro events.
MonthTradesWin %Net P&L ($)Avg $/Trade
2011-0415148.3%+$146.59$0.97
2011-0517460.3%+$7,216.21$41.47
2011-0618447.3%$-1,599.81$-8.69
2011-0716453.7%+$9,791.11$59.70
2011-0818253.3%$-3,653.01$-20.07
2011-0917357.2%+$2,838.21$16.41
2011-1018353.0%+$4,501.02$24.60
2011-1117955.9%+$10,776.96$60.21
2011-1216647.0%+$5,433.53$32.73
2012-0116254.9%+$17,807.97$109.93
2012-0217451.1%+$21,513.82$123.64
2012-0317149.1%+$28,839.25$168.65
2012-0417447.1%$-6,185.46$-35.55
2012-0518351.4%+$15,809.56$86.39
2012-0617254.7%+$53,116.23$308.82
2012-0717650.6%+$66,716.75$379.07
2012-0817749.2%+$14,649.06$82.76
2012-0917145.0%$-17,940.95$-104.92
2012-1015953.5%+$68,545.58$431.10
2012-1115840.5%$-4,426.96$-28.02
2012-1213941.0%+$11,970.51$86.12
2013-0116642.8%+$5,784.56$34.85
2013-0213750.4%+$61,705.91$450.41
2013-0315048.0%+$29,538.79$196.93
2013-0417346.8%+$32,470.77$187.69
2013-0516958.6%+$50,578.03$299.28
2013-0616557.0%+$27,841.15$168.73
2013-0718156.9%+$43,753.66$241.73
2013-0819150.3%+$40,737.68$213.29
2013-0916946.7%+$6,403.56$37.89
2013-1018751.9%+$78,202.90$418.20
2013-1116648.2%+$44,220.95$266.39
2013-1216448.2%+$42.12$0.26
2014-0117455.7%+$72,898.40$418.96
2014-0215344.4%$-21,106.17$-137.95
2014-0316149.1%+$3,345.10$20.78
2014-0414855.4%+$27,816.19$187.95
2014-0515445.5%+$38,611.21$250.72
2014-0615040.7%+$5,015.96$33.44
2014-0716240.7%$-25,479.62$-157.28
2014-0814535.2%$-58,699.55$-404.82
2014-0916544.8%$-20,647.27$-125.13
2014-1016854.8%+$46,020.40$273.93
2014-1115248.7%$-65,813.43$-432.98
2014-1217048.2%$-19,315.86$-113.62
2015-0116457.3%+$74,193.49$452.40
2015-0215852.5%+$21,082.46$133.43
2015-0318853.2%$-6,850.29$-36.44
2015-0417758.2%+$69,698.29$393.78
2015-0517752.5%+$24,581.92$138.88
2015-0618354.1%+$50,882.59$278.05
2015-0718749.2%$-50,036.21$-267.57
2015-0816957.4%+$92,157.89$545.31
2015-0917149.1%$-7,588.49$-44.38
2015-1016053.1%$-8,926.95$-55.79
2015-1116350.3%+$28,607.11$175.50
2015-1216748.5%+$12,520.02$74.97
2016-0117354.9%+$55,857.07$322.87
2016-0218055.6%$-12,744.00$-70.80
2016-0319858.1%+$107,578.16$543.32
2016-0417156.1%+$77,719.83$454.50
2016-0518551.4%+$33,205.28$179.49
2016-0616452.4%+$38,724.37$236.12
2016-0715454.5%+$35,361.37$229.62
2016-0817752.5%+$76,904.46$434.49
2016-0918251.6%+$101,253.13$556.34
2016-1016548.5%+$20,151.07$122.13
2016-1118648.4%$-7,436.28$-39.98
2016-1215247.4%+$25,397.79$167.09
2017-0117749.7%+$62,315.59$352.07
2017-0215848.1%$-5,893.67$-37.30
2017-0316749.7%+$32,717.29$195.91
2017-0414841.9%+$16,892.94$114.14
2017-0516953.3%+$42,248.60$249.99
2017-0616147.8%+$61,929.64$384.66
2017-0716338.7%$-61,699.54$-378.52
2017-0816846.4%$-20,610.21$-122.68
2017-0915850.0%$-4,968.66$-31.45
2017-1017436.8%$-20,617.75$-118.49
2017-1116747.3%+$47,649.49$285.33
2017-1213643.4%$-12,284.67$-90.33
2018-0117649.4%+$75,853.79$430.99
2018-0216254.9%+$62,966.00$388.68
2018-0317142.7%$-12,506.65$-73.14
2018-0416243.2%$-9,552.39$-58.97
2018-0518246.7%+$30,979.94$170.22
2018-0615949.7%+$69,377.27$436.34
2018-0716445.7%+$21,895.15$133.51
2018-0817444.3%$-32,755.04$-188.25
2018-0914947.7%+$35,346.13$237.22
2018-1017841.0%$-17,181.02$-96.52
2018-1118143.6%+$21,059.77$116.35
2018-1215745.9%+$20,924.87$133.28
2019-0117351.4%+$85,779.77$495.84
2019-0215446.1%$-8,735.14$-56.72
2019-0315345.8%+$2,713.42$17.73
2019-0415644.2%$-17,820.40$-114.23
2019-0516739.5%+$26,594.51$159.25
2019-0615045.3%+$276.38$1.84
2019-0718139.2%$-15,311.15$-84.59
2019-0815344.4%+$5,337.67$34.89
2019-0913645.6%$-12,254.67$-90.11
2019-1016642.2%$-6,268.61$-37.76
2019-1115940.9%+$4,270.92$26.86
2019-1215337.3%$-6,091.89$-39.82
2020-0115738.9%+$7,133.04$45.43
2020-0215148.3%+$21,482.51$142.27
2020-0316354.6%+$1,559.49$9.57
2020-0417460.9%+$80,948.98$465.22
2020-0517350.9%+$31,993.23$184.93
2020-0617360.7%+$49,245.82$284.66
2020-0720252.0%+$58,915.95$291.66
2020-0817354.9%+$66,576.36$384.83
2020-0918154.7%+$91,115.98$503.40
2020-1017344.5%$-41,860.39$-241.97
2020-1116050.0%+$19,586.78$122.42
2020-1216344.8%$-13,365.32$-82.00
2021-0116653.0%+$35,581.79$214.35
2021-0215751.6%+$53,822.21$342.82
2021-0316856.5%+$116,439.34$693.09
2021-0415650.0%+$20,861.88$133.73
2021-0516950.9%+$36,022.72$213.15
2021-0618637.6%$-74,256.08$-399.23
2021-0716848.2%+$10,698.77$63.68
2021-0815742.0%$-53,075.76$-338.06
2021-0917049.4%+$63,638.20$374.34
2021-1017341.6%$-47,467.69$-274.38
2021-1116344.8%$-24,498.59$-150.30
2021-1215945.3%$-31,394.90$-197.45
2022-0115748.4%+$15,864.04$101.04
2022-0216746.7%+$4,302.26$25.76
2022-0319154.5%+$103,887.16$543.91
2022-0413948.2%+$13,219.25$95.10
2022-0518459.2%+$64,885.77$352.64
2022-0616547.9%$-38,699.83$-234.54
2022-0717050.6%+$8,839.74$52.00
2022-0817455.2%+$14,478.54$83.21
2022-0919258.9%+$127,831.17$665.79
2022-1017254.7%+$20,520.57$119.31
2022-1119156.0%+$25,585.59$133.96
2022-1218052.8%+$69,186.80$384.37
2023-0116858.9%+$42,117.67$250.70
2023-0216650.0%+$10,701.41$64.47
2023-0317955.3%+$66,794.35$373.15
2023-0414152.5%+$5,813.17$41.23
2023-0517953.1%+$39,366.09$219.92
2023-0617052.4%+$49,462.29$290.95
2023-0717157.3%+$74,999.24$438.59
2023-0817348.6%$-13,512.37$-78.11
2023-0916444.5%$-818.20$-4.99
2023-1017151.5%+$14,577.55$85.25
2023-1118751.9%+$91,619.34$489.94
2023-1216052.5%+$64,231.51$401.45
2024-0117242.4%$-28,536.09$-165.91
2024-0215440.3%$-27,422.67$-178.07
2024-0314947.0%$-1,732.59$-11.63
2024-0416144.7%+$17,337.70$107.69
2024-0516452.4%+$79,878.16$487.06
2024-0614542.1%$-10,462.73$-72.16
2024-0717049.4%+$47,067.18$276.87
2024-0818241.2%$-35,244.23$-193.65
2024-0916844.6%$-19,639.06$-116.90
2024-1018350.3%+$62,719.23$342.73
2024-1114750.3%+$42,321.60$287.90
2024-1216452.4%+$56,525.06$344.66
2025-0116151.6%+$32,790.36$203.67
2025-0215545.2%$-5,613.29$-36.21
2025-0316249.4%+$7,221.61$44.58
2025-0418453.3%+$37,288.23$202.65
2025-0518844.7%+$16,882.55$89.80
2025-0615854.4%+$100,293.81$634.77
2025-0717947.5%+$32,851.75$183.53
2025-0816045.0%+$2,263.66$14.15
2025-0916746.1%+$14,434.39$86.43
2025-1018744.4%$-12,849.50$-68.71
2025-1116150.3%+$40,069.76$248.88
2025-1216448.8%+$23,957.69$146.08
2026-0115349.7%+$36,916.73$241.29
2026-0214455.6%+$84,861.88$589.32
2026-0318657.0%+$105,632.95$567.92
2026-043138.7%+$2,051.41$66.17
Monthly P&L — Feb 2024 – Apr 2026 (181 months)P&L mensuel — apr 2011 – apr 2026 (181 mois)
Yearly ResultsRésultats annuels
Year-by-Year Performance (2005 – 2026)Performance année par année (2005 – 2026)
3 out of 3 calendar years (2024, 2025, 2026) produced positive net P&L (no years were negative). 2025 was the strongest year — the GFC created extreme GBP/USD volatility that the strategy exploited. 2026 is a partial year (Jan–Apr) with AUD sideways at low volatility.
YearTradesWin %Net P&L ($)Avg $/Trade
20111,55653.0%+$35,450.81$22.78
20122,01649.2%+$270,415.36$134.13
20132,01850.5%+$421,280.08$208.76
20141,90247.1%$-17,354.64$-9.12
20152,06453.0%+$300,321.83$145.50
20162,08752.7%+$551,972.25$264.48
20171,94646.1%+$137,679.05$70.75
20182,01546.2%+$266,407.82$132.21
20191,90143.5%+$58,490.81$30.77
20202,04351.4%+$373,332.43$182.74
20211,99247.5%+$106,371.89$53.40
20222,08253.0%+$429,901.06$206.48
20232,02952.4%+$445,352.05$219.49
20241,95946.5%+$182,811.56$93.32
20252,02648.3%+$289,591.02$142.94
202651453.3%+$229,462.97$446.43
Yearly Results ChartsGraphiques des résultats annuels

Cumulative Equity — Annual Steps ($)

Annual Net P&L ($)

Win Rate by Year (%)

Trade Count by Year

Avg P&L per Trade by Year ($)

*2024 and 2026 are partial years.*Les années 2005 et 2026 sont des années partielles.
SeasonalitySaisonnalité
Monthly SeasonalitySaisonnalité mensuelle
All 12 calendar months are profitable. May and October lead on total and average P&L. August is the weakest — consistent with reduced liquidity and holiday-period range compression typical for GBP/USDUD/USD.
MonthYrsTradesWin %Total Net P&L ($)Avg P&L/Yr ($)Avg/Trade ($)PF
Jan152,49950.7%$592,358$39,491$237.041.240
Feb152,37049.5%$260,924$17,395$110.091.104
Mar152,55751.6%$585,177$39,012$228.851.226
Apr162,44650.1%$368,707$23,044$150.741.155
May152,61751.4%$538,854$35,924$205.911.217
Jun152,48549.7%$381,147$25,410$153.381.158
Jul152,59249.0%$258,364$17,224$99.681.098
Aug152,55548.2%$95,555$6,370$37.401.035
Sep152,51649.3%$359,003$23,934$142.691.145
Oct152,59948.1%$160,066$10,671$61.591.059
Nov152,52048.6%$273,593$18,240$108.571.110
Dec152,39447.1%$207,737$13,849$86.771.088
Seasonality ChartsGraphiques de saisonnalité

Total Net P&L by Month ($)

Profit Factor by Month

Avg P&L / Trade by Month ($)

Win Rate by Month — Radar

Avg Annual P&L by Calendar Month ($)

Appendix 1Annexe 1
EUR/USD — Strategy Validation EUR/USD — Validation de la stratégie
The strategy works on other pairs. Here is a summary of the EUR/USD pair tested over the same period (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026 · 2 years). Starting from $5,800 the strategy produced $3.17M in net profit — confirming the edge is not pair-specific. La stratégie fonctionne sur d’autres paires. Voici un résumé de la paire GBP/USD testée sur la même période (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026 · 2 ans). En partant de 5 000 $, la stratégie a généré $3.17M de profit net.
Net ProfitProfit net
$3.17M
+54,676%
CAGR
1883.20%
Compound annualAnnuel composé
Win RateTaux de gain
72.77%
3,170 wins / 4,356 trades
Profit FactorFacteur de profit
1.45
Acceptable >1.3
Sharpe RatioRatio de Sharpe
9.03
Excellent >2
Max DrawdownRetrait maximal
-$159,740.89
-10.48% of peak
Calmar RatioRatio de Calmar
19.85
Excellent >3
Months StoppedMois arrêtés
0
DD risk management

Annual Net P&L — GBP/USD ($)

Cumulative Equity — GBP/USD ($)

Total P&L by Calendar Month ($)

Win Rate by Calendar Month (%)

*2024 and 2026 are partial years. Same $5,800 starting capital.
Appendix 2Annexe 2
AUD/USD — Strategy Validation AUD/USD — Validation de la stratégie
The strategy works on other pairs. Here is a summary of the AUD/USD pair tested over the same period (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026 · 2 years). Starting from $5,800 the strategy produced $3.07M in net profit — confirming the edge is not pair-specific. La stratégie fonctionne sur d’autres paires. Voici un résumé de la paire EUR/USD testée sur la même période (Feb 2024 – Apr 2026 · 2 ans). En partant de 5 000 $, la stratégie a généré $3.07M de profit net.
Net ProfitProfit net
$3.07M
+52,930%
CAGR
1853.01%
Compound annualAnnuel composé
Win RateTaux de gain
76.32%
4,003 wins / 5,245 trades
Profit FactorFacteur de profit
1.31
Acceptable >1.3
Sharpe RatioRatio de Sharpe
7.14
Excellent >2
Max DrawdownRetrait maximal
-$256,172.73
-18.31% of peak
Calmar RatioRatio de Calmar
11.98
Excellent >3
Months StoppedMois arrêtés
0
DD risk management

Annual Net P&L — EUR/USD ($)

Cumulative Equity — EUR/USD ($)

Total P&L by Calendar Month ($)

Win Rate by Calendar Month (%)

*2024 and 2026 are partial years. Same $5,800 starting capital.
Appendix 3Annexe 3
Valuation ScenariosScénarios de valeur
Model AssumptionsHypothèses du modèle
Strategies: AUD/USD + EUR/USD + GBP/USD combined into one company accountStratégies : AUD/USD + EUR/USD + GBP/USD combinées dans un seul compte
Starting capital: $5,800 per strategy → $15,000 totalCapital de départ : 5 000 $/stratégie → 15 000 $ total
Period: AUD/USD · EUR/USD · GBP/USD — Feb 2024 – Apr 2026Période : AUD/USD · EUR/USD · GBP/USD — mars 2005 – mars 2026
Expenses: $50,000/yr deducted monthly ($4,167/month from company cash)Dépenses : 50 000 $/an déduits mensuellement (4 167 $/mois)
Income tax: Quebec corporate rates — 12.2% on first $500K net active income/yr; 26.5% above; passive income 50.17% — paid quarterlyImpôt : Taux corporatifs québécois — 12,2 % jusqu'à 500 K$ de revenu net actif/an; 26,5 % au-dessus; revenu passif 50,17 % — payé trimestriellement
Passive income: 5%/yr earned on company equity above $600,000Revenu passif : 5 %/an sur les capitaux propres dépassant 600 000 $
Dividends: Paid at year-end only — no intra-year withdrawalsDividendes : Versés uniquement en fin d'année — aucun retrait en cours d'année
NPV: PV(annual dividends) + PV(terminal equity), discounted at 10% and 15%VAN : VA(dividendes annuels) + VA(capitaux terminaux), actualisés à 10 % et 15 %
A — Pure CompoundingA — Capitalisation pure
No dividends. All profits reinvested. Maximum terminal equity.Aucun dividende. Tous les bénéfices réinvestis. Capitaux terminaux maximaux.
Final equityCapitaux finaux
$15.22M
Total dividendsDividendes totaux
$0
NPV @10%
$1.87M
NPV @15%
$703,058
B — 25% Annual DividendB — Dividende annuel 25 %
Year-end dividend = 25% of annual after-tax net profit. No cap.Dividende fin d'année = 25 % du bénéfice net annuel après impôt. Sans plafond.
Final equityCapitaux finaux
$10.22M
Total dividendsDividendes totaux
$3.41M
NPV @10%
$1.27M
NPV @15%
$2.27M
C — $1M Cap + DD RulesC — Plafond 1 M$ + règles DD
Year-end dividend = all equity above $1M. Cap first reached: 2008.Dividende fin d'année = tout capital au-dessus de 1 M$. Plafond atteint en 2008.
Final equityCapitaux finaux
$1.00M
Total dividendsDividendes totaux
$9.53M
NPV @10%
$2.44M
NPV @15%
$748,864
MetricMétrique A B C
Starting capitalCapital de départ$15,000$15,000$15,000
Account capPlafond$1,000,000
Cap first reachedPlafond atteintN/AN/A2008
Final company equityCapitaux propres finals$15.22M$10.22M$1.00M
Total dividends paidDividendes totaux versés$0$3.41M$9.53M
Total tax paidImpôts totaux payés$13.64M$10.53M$1.57M
Total expenses (~20yr)Dépenses totales (~20 ans)~$1,050K~$1,050K~$1,050K
NPV @ 10%$1.87M$1.27M$2.44M
NPV @ 15%$703,058$2.27M$748,864
Why C wins at higher discount rates: Scenario C distributes large dividends early — the $1M cap is hit in 2008, after which the company pays out $100K–$3.47M every year. Cash received in years 2–5 is worth far more than cash 21 years away at high discount rates. Scenario A's $15.22M terminal equity discounted at 20% over 21 years equals only $727K today — barely more than Scenario C's NPV. Pourquoi C gagne à des taux d'actualisation élevés : Le scénario C distribue d'importants dividendes dès le début — le plafond de 1 M$ est atteint en 2008, après quoi l'entreprise verse 100 K$–2,4 M$ chaque année. Les liquidités reçues en années 2–5 valent bien plus à taux élevé. Les $15.22M terminaux du scénario A actualisés à 20 % sur 20 ans ne valent que $727K aujourd'hui.

Annual Cashflow Detail — Scenario C ($1M Cap) — 3 Strategies Combined Détail annuel — Scénario C (plafond 1 M$) — 3 stratégies combinées

YearAnnée Gross P&LP&L brut Passive Inc.Rev. passif ExpensesDépenses TaxImpôt Year-End DividendDividende fin d'année Yr-End EquityCapitaux fin d'année
2006 $ 215,002 $ 0 $ 41,667 $ 22,077 $ 0 $ 166,257
2007 $ 1,030,906 $ 4,364 $ 50,000 $ 202,179 $ 0 $ 949,349
2008 $ 3,201,657 $ 73,958 $ 50,000 $ 800,794 $ 2,374,170 $ 1,000,000
2009 $ 955,369 $ 43,699 $ 50,000 $ 190,347 $ 758,722 $ 1,000,000
2010 $ 415,495 $ 29,663 $ 50,000 $ 59,472 $ 335,686 $ 1,000,000
2011 $ 281,940 $ 25,289 $ 50,000 $ 40,984 $ 216,245 $ 1,000,000
2012 $ 157,140 $ 23,893 $ 50,000 $ 25,097 $ 105,937 $ 1,000,000
2013 $ 147,775 $ 23,092 $ 50,000 $ 23,514 $ 97,354 $ 1,000,000
2014 $ 113,273 $ 22,461 $ 50,000 $ 18,988 $ 66,746 $ 1,000,000
2015 $ 191,124 $ 24,289 $ 50,000 $ 29,403 $ 136,010 $ 1,000,000
2016 $ 124,206 $ 22,579 $ 50,000 $ 20,606 $ 76,179 $ 1,000,000
2017 $ 57,027 $ 20,941 $ 50,000 $ 12,663 $ 15,305 $ 1,000,000
2018 $ 99,783 $ 21,486 $ 50,000 $ 16,853 $ 54,416 $ 1,000,000
2019 $ 85,599 $ 21,529 $ 50,000 $ 15,144 $ 41,984 $ 1,000,000
2020 $ 112,135 $ 21,884 $ 50,000 $ 18,840 $ 65,179 $ 1,000,000
2021 $ 56,879 $ 20,803 $ 50,000 $ 11,907 $ 15,775 $ 1,000,000
2022 $ 84,983 $ 20,945 $ 50,000 $ 14,846 $ 41,081 $ 1,000,000
2023 $ 85,691 $ 21,432 $ 50,000 $ 15,107 $ 42,016 $ 1,000,000
2024 $ 61,424 $ 20,733 $ 50,000 $ 12,043 $ 20,114 $ 1,000,000
2025 $ 76,991 $ 21,564 $ 50,000 $ 14,375 $ 34,180 $ 1,000,000
2026 $ 11,582 $ 5,054 $ 12,500 $ 2,536 $ 0 $ 1,001,600
TOTAL $ 7,565,982 $ 489,658 $1,004,167 $1,567,774 $ 4,497,098 $1.00M
Account Equity by ScenarioÉquité du compte par scénario
Cumulative Cash DistributedLiquidités cumulées distribuées
Total Wealth (Account + Cash)Richesse totale (compte + liquidités)
Appendix 1Annexe 1
System ArchitectureArchitecture du système
Logical architecture of the automated algorithmic trading system: Debian 13 VPS, NGINX web gateway, Python adapter for the broker API, supervised by Supervisor and monitored by Monit.Architecture logique du système de trading algorithmique automatisé : VPS Debian 13, passerelle NGINX, adaptateur Python pour l'API courtier, supervisé par Supervisor et Monit.
DisclaimerAvis important

Disclaimer & LimitationsAvertissement & limites

Important DisclaimerAvertissement important
This report and all financial projections, valuations, scenario analyses and NPV calculations contained herein have been prepared to the best of our ability using realistic assumptions based on historical backtest data. This report has not been independently audited or verified by any third party. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information presented. Ce rapport et toutes les projections financières qu'il contient ont été préparés au mieux de nos capacités en utilisant des hypothèses réalistes fondées sur des données historiques. Ce rapport n'a pas été audité ni vérifié de manière indépendante par un tiers. Nous ne faisons aucune déclaration ni garantie quant à l'exactitude, l'exhaustivité ou la fiabilité des informations présentées.
Backtest LimitationsLimites du backtesting
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Backtests are conducted on historical data and do not account for future market regime changes, liquidity constraints, slippage, broker execution risk, or unforeseen macroeconomic events. Live trading results may differ materially from backtested results. Les performances passées ne sont pas indicatives des résultats futurs. Les backtests sont réalisés sur des données historiques et ne tiennent pas compte des changements futurs de régime de marché, des contraintes de liquidité, du glissement, ni des événements macroéconomiques imprévus. Les résultats réels peuvent différer sensiblement.
Financial ProjectionsProjections financières
All NPV calculations, scenario analyses and investor/owner valuations are illustrative projections based on assumed discount rates and continuation of historical return distributions. Actual returns, cashflows and valuations may differ significantly. No guarantee of any return is expressed or implied. Tous les calculs de VAN, analyses de scénarios et évaluations sont des projections illustratives fondées sur des taux d'actualisation supposés. Les rendements, flux et évaluations réels peuvent différer de manière significative. Aucune garantie de rendement n'est exprimée ou implicite.
No LiabilityAbsence de responsabilité
Neither the author nor any affiliated party shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or consequential damages arising from use of or reliance on this report. Recipients should conduct their own due diligence and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Ni l'auteur ni aucune partie affiliée ne saurait être tenu responsable de tout dommage direct, indirect ou consécutif découlant de l'utilisation de ce rapport. Les destinataires doivent effectuer leur propre diligence et consulter un conseiller indépendant avant toute décision d'investissement.
Not AuditedNon audité
The trading results, performance statistics and financial calculations in this report have not been audited, verified or certified by any independent accounting firm, financial regulator or third-party auditor. All figures are self-reported and based on internal records and backtesting software outputs. Les résultats de trading, statistiques de performance et calculs financiers n'ont pas été audités, vérifiés ou certifiés par un cabinet comptable indépendant ni un auditeur tiers. Tous les chiffres sont auto-déclarés et fondés sur des enregistrements internes.
Confidentiality: This document is prepared for discussion and information purposes only. The information herein does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product. Confidentialité : Ce document est préparé uniquement à des fins de discussion et d'information. Les informations contenues ne constituent pas une offre de vente ni une sollicitation d'achat d'un titre ou produit d'investissement.
About the Business OwnerÀ propos du propriétaire
Mario Bourassa
[email protected]
Mario Bourassa

A graduate in actuarial science (applied mathematics) from Laval University, Mario Bourassa started his career in the insurance industry but quickly steered his career toward information technology, joining DWL, IBM and then Prolifics. Over the years, he took on senior roles in analysis, development, and project management across a range of industries in Master Data Management.Diplômé en sciences actuarielles (mathématiques appliquées) de l'Université Laval, Mario Bourassa a débuté sa carrière dans l'industrie de l'assurance avant de s'orienter vers les technologies de l'information, rejoignant DWL, IBM puis Prolifics. Au fil des années, il a occupé des postes de direction en analyse, développement et gestion de projet dans diverses industries, notamment en gestion des données de référence (MDM).

Mario had always envisioned a company that would operate 24 hours a day, be fully automated, and operate without inventory or a distribution network. Four years ago, he began turning that vision into reality.Mario a toujours eu la vision d'une entreprise fonctionnant 24 heures sur 24, entièrement automatisée, sans inventaire ni réseau de distribution. Il y a quatre ans, il a commencé à concrétiser cette vision.

The results of the strategy and architecture presented in this document are the culmination of four years of development, testing, and refinement, built on a foundation of rigorous mathematical and engineering discipline.Les résultats de la stratégie et de l'architecture présentés dans ce document sont l'aboutissement de quatre années de développement, de tests et de perfectionnement, reposant sur une rigueur mathématique et une discipline d'ingénierie solides.

9459-0817 Québec Inc  ·  FX Strategy Backtest ReportRapport de backtesting — Stratégie FX  ·  AUD/USD