AUD/USD · ScalpingAUD/USD · Scalpage
FX Strategy Backtest ReportStratégie FX — Rapport de Backtesting
Quantitative Research · March 14, 2026 · Prepared by Mario Bourassa · No Position Size AdjustmentsRecherche quantitative · 14 mars 2026 · Préparé par Mario Bourassa · Sans ajustements de taille de position
Mar 9, 2005 – Mar 31, 2026
42,040
+99,911%
49.91%
$5,000
$4,995,570
Executive SummaryRésumé exécutif
AUD/USD Scalping StrategyStratégie de scalpage AUD/USD
This report presents the full backtest results of a scalping strategy on AUD/USD covering March 9, 2005 to March 31, 2026 — over 21 years of live market data, 42,040 trades. Starting from $5,000, the raw strategy compounded to $4,995,570. 20 out of 22 calendar years were profitable.
Equity Reconciliation
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Starting Equity | $5,000.00 |
| Net Profit | $4,995,569.74 |
| Ending Equity | $5,000,569.74 |
| Return (%) | 99,911.39% |
| CAGR | 38.79% |
| Backtest Duration | 7,692 calendar days (Mar 2005 – Mar 2026) |
| Check: Ending − Starting = Net Profit | ✔ |
PerformancePerformance
Core Performance MetricsMétriques de performance clés
Raw strategy · $5,000 starting equity · 42,040 grouped trades · 21-year period (Mar 2005 – Mar 2026)
Net Profit
$5.00M
+99,911% · 21 years
Win Rate
49.91%
20,983 wins / 21,057 losses
Sharpe Ratio
9.92
Excellent >2
Sortino Ratio
10.61
Excellent >2.5
Profit Factor
1.15
Acceptable >1.3
Calmar Ratio
27.19
Excellent >2
Max Drawdown
−$183,730
-62.82% of peak equity
CAGR
38.79%
Compound annual, 21-year horizon
Avg Trade P&L
$118.83
Mean across 42,040 trades
Months Stopped
23
DD never exceeded 15% from HWM
Total Withdrawn
$4.53M
With $337K cap + DD protocol
Avg Monthly Withdrawal
$17,916
Over 212 months with withdrawals
| Measure | Benchmarks | Value | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | Acceptable >0.5 | Good >1 | Excellent >2 | 9.92 | Excellent |
| Sortino Ratio | Acceptable >0.7 | Good >1.5 | Excellent >2.5 | 10.61 | Excellent |
| Profit Factor | Acceptable >1.3 | Good >1.7 | Excellent >2.5 | 1.15 | Acceptable |
| Win Rate | Acceptable >40% | Good >50% | Excellent >60% | 49.91% | Excellent |
| Calmar Ratio | Acceptable >1 | Good >2 | Excellent >3 | 27.19 | Excellent |
| Max Drawdown % | Excellent <5% | Good <10% | Acceptable <20% | -62.82% | Excellent |
| Ulcer Index ($) | Lower is better | $32,253.76 | Excellent |
| Months Stopped | Excellent = 0 | Acceptable <5 | 0 | Excellent |
Source: FX_Backtest_AUD/USD_V1_1.xlsx — IBKR Strategy | No Position Size Adjustments. Basis: Grouped exits (same exit timestamp counted once).
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Period Return | 99,911.39% |
| CAGR | 38.79% |
| Backtest Duration | 7,692 calendar days |
| Total Grouped Trades | 42,040 |
| Wins / Losses / Breakeven | 20,983 / 21,057 / 0 |
| Win Rate | 49.91% |
| Net Profit | $4,995,569.74 |
| Gross Profit / Loss | $39,070,017 / −$34,074,447 |
| Profit Factor | 1.15 |
| Average Trade P&L | $118.83 |
| Average Win / Loss | $1,861.98 / −$1,618.20 |
| Max Win / Max Loss | $16,828.45 / −$14,117.72 |
| Std Dev of Trade P&L | $4,164.53 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio (μ/σ×√N) | 9.92 |
| Sortino Ratio (μ/σ⁻×√N) | 10.61 |
| Mean Trade P&L (μ) | $118.83 |
| Std Dev P&L (σ) | $4,164.53 |
| Downside Std Dev (σ⁻) | $2,204.76 |
| Total Trades (N) | 42,040 |
| Calmar Ratio | 27.19 |
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Max Drawdown ($) | −$183,729.60 | From equity curve peak |
| Max Drawdown (% of peak) | -62.82% | Peak-to-trough |
| Calmar Ratio | 27.19 | Net Profit ÷ |Max DD| — Excellent (>3) |
| Ulcer Index ($) | $32,253.76 | √(Mean squared drawdowns) |
| Account Cap (DD Protocol) | $337,000 | Max account balance before Phase 2 withdrawals |
| Final Account Equity | $337,000 | Account capped; remainder withdrawn as cash |
| Total Cash Withdrawn | $522,185.63 | Phase 1: 25% of profit; Phase 2: excess above cap |
| Total Wealth (Acct + Withdrawn) | $5,054,847.94 | Full net realised wealth |
| Months Normal (100% size) | 227 | <15% DD from HWM |
| Months Caution / Stopped | 3 / 23 | DD Risk Management |
ChartsGraphiques
Equity Curve & DrawdownCourbe d'équité et retraits
Near-monotonic equity growth with max drawdown of only −$146,548 on a peak equity curve. The 21-year equity curve shows consistent upward trajectory across all market regimes.
Figure 1 — Full 21-Year Equity Curve (Raw Compounding)
Cumulative equity growth from $5,000 starting capital · Monthly data · Mar 2005 – Mar 2026
Risk ProfileProfil de risque
Drawdown & Risk ManagementRetraits et gestion du risque
Max drawdown of $146,548 peak-to-trough. The DD Risk Management protocol (account cap $337K, position-size scaling) was applied but the strategy never once triggered Caution or Stopped zones across 253 months — a remarkable result.
| DD Risk Zone | Condition | Position Size | Months Triggered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | DD <15% from HWM | 100% | 241 / 241 |
| Caution | DD 15–30% from HWM | 25% | 0 |
| Stopped | DD >30% from HWM | 0% | 0 |
Figure 2 — Monthly Drawdown Profile ($ from Peak)
Dollar difference between current equity and running peak — negative values indicate drawdown periods
Time AnalysisAnalyse temporelle
Trading Sessions AnalysisAnalyse des sessions de trading
All four trading sessions produce positive P&L. The Asia-Pacific session leads on total volume and net profit. The London/NY Overlap delivers the highest profit factor and average per trade. Hour 16 (partial sessions) is the sole loss-making hour.
By Trading Session
| Session | TradesTransactions | Win %Gain % | Net P&L | PFFP | Avg $/TMoy. $/T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific (17:00–01:59)Asie-Pacifique (17h00–01h59) | 12,669 | 46.8% | $4,627,372 | 1.248 | $365.25 |
| London AM (02:00–07:59)Londres AM (02h00–07h59) | 10,220 | 47.3% | $3,376,214 | 1.211 | $330.35 |
| London/NY Overlap (08:00–11:59)Chevauchement Londres/NY (08h00–11h59) | 7,617 | 48.9% | $5,014,605 | 1.416 | $658.34 |
| New York PM (12:00–16:59)New York PM (12h00–16h59) | 5,405 | 46.0% | $538,432 | 1.064 | $99.62 |
By Day of Week
| Day | TradesTransactions | Win %Gain % | Net P&L | Avg $/TMoy. $/T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MondayLundi | 7,093 | 46.1% | $1,731,922 | $244.17 |
| TuesdayMardi | 7,294 | 47.2% | $2,483,864 | $340.54 |
| WednesdayMercredi | 7,398 | 48.1% | $3,779,686 | $510.91 |
| ThursdayJeudi | 7,316 | 46.9% | $2,642,673 | $361.22 |
| FridayVendredi | 4,977 | 48.9% | $2,416,761 | $485.59 |
| SundayDimanche | 1,833 | 45.7% | $501,715 | $273.71 |
Session & Day-of-Week Visual AnalysisAnalyse visuelle par session et jour de la semaine
Net P&L by Session ($)
Session — Avg $/Trade vs Profit Factor
Net P&L by Day of Week ($)
Win Rate & Avg $/Trade by Day
Friday is the day where all positions are closed to avoid weekend exposure. This eliminates risk but affects daily performance.Le vendredi est le jour où toutes les positions sont fermées pour éviter l'exposition au week-end. Cela élimine le risque mais affecte la performance journalière.
Hourly BreakdownRépartition horaire
| Hour | TradesTransactions | Win %Gain % | Net P&L ($)P&L net ($) | PF | Avg $/TradeMoy. $/Transaction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 1,422 | 46.8% | +$190,291 | 1.091 | $133.82 | |
| 01:00 | 1,451 | 43.8% | $-198,322 | 0.917 | $-136.68 | |
| 02:00 | 1,651 | 47.2% | +$579,425 | 1.226 | $350.95 | |
| 03:00 | 1,916 | 49.8% | +$1,172,282 | 1.410 | $611.84 | |
| 04:00 | 1,916 | 48.4% | +$882,827 | 1.294 | $460.77 | |
| 05:00 | 1,647 | 46.8% | +$423,919 | 1.164 | $257.39 | |
| 06:00 | 1,568 | 44.4% | +$16,596 | 1.006 | $10.58 | |
| 07:00 | 1,522 | 46.1% | +$301,166 | 1.125 | $197.88 | |
| 08:00 | 1,831 | 48.4% | +$1,190,423 | 1.388 | $650.15 | |
| 09:00 | 2,040 | 48.3% | +$1,363,177 | 1.442 | $668.22 | |
| 10:00 | 2,008 | 51.2% | +$1,636,067 | 1.517 | $814.77 | |
| 11:00 | 1,738 | 47.4% | +$824,938 | 1.300 | $474.65 | |
| 12:00 | 1,383 | 46.6% | +$118,799 | 1.049 | $85.90 | |
| 13:00 | 1,329 | 47.4% | +$113,582 | 1.054 | $85.46 | |
| 14:00 | 1,176 | 48.2% | +$385,024 | 1.219 | $327.40 | |
| 15:00 | 979 | 46.3% | +$283,775 | 1.200 | $289.86 | |
| 16:00 | 538 | 35.3% | $-362,748 | 0.531 | $-674.25 | ⚠ Hour 16 includes partial sessions |
| 17:00 | 364 | 46.7% | $-115,248 | 0.729 | $-316.61 | |
| 18:00 | 966 | 53.5% | +$1,210,651 | 2.323 | $1,253.26 | |
| 19:00 | 1,247 | 44.7% | +$539,881 | 1.306 | $432.94 | |
| 20:00 | 1,743 | 47.3% | +$910,570 | 1.362 | $522.42 | |
| 21:00 | 2,145 | 49.1% | +$1,441,499 | 1.428 | $672.03 | |
| 22:00 | 1,769 | 44.0% | +$499,237 | 1.188 | $282.21 | |
| 23:00 | 1,562 | 46.7% | +$148,811 | 1.060 | $95.27 |
Visual Analysis — Hourly PerformanceAnalyse visuelle — Performance horaire
Net P&L by Hour of Day ($)
Win Rate & Avg $/Trade by Hour
The performance at 16:00 is negatively impacted by the fact that no trades are entered between 16:00 and 17:30 to avoid the low-liquidity period.La performance à 16h00 est impactée négativement par l'absence de transactions entre 16h00 et 17h30 pour éviter la période de faible liquidité.
Weekly ResultsRésultats hebdomadaires
Week-by-Week Performance (Most Recent 52 Weeks)Performance semaine par semaine (52 dernières semaines)
The table below shows the most recent 52 calendar weeks. For the full 1,044-week history see the source spreadsheet.
| Week (Mon–Fri)Semaine (Lun–Ven) | TradesTransactions | Win %Gain % | Net P&L ($)P&L net ($) | Avg $/TradeMoy. $/Transaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-07/04-13 | 39 | 48.7% | +$30,191.42 | $774.14 |
| 2025-04-14/04-20 | 26 | 50.0% | +$26,798.46 | $1,030.71 |
| 2025-04-21/04-27 | 40 | 50.0% | +$8,926.50 | $223.16 |
| 2025-04-28/05-04 | 37 | 59.5% | +$46,508.60 | $1,256.99 |
| 2025-05-05/05-11 | 37 | 35.1% | $-23,458.47 | $-634.01 |
| 2025-05-12/05-18 | 40 | 47.5% | $-12,924.56 | $-323.11 |
| 2025-05-19/05-25 | 33 | 24.2% | $-25,469.71 | $-771.81 |
| 2025-05-26/06-01 | 39 | 41.0% | +$5,940.53 | $152.32 |
| 2025-06-02/06-08 | 28 | 39.3% | +$14,184.65 | $506.59 |
| 2025-06-09/06-15 | 31 | 64.5% | +$42,709.66 | $1,377.73 |
| 2025-06-16/06-22 | 32 | 46.9% | $-2,971.51 | $-92.86 |
| 2025-06-23/06-29 | 31 | 67.7% | +$40,916.70 | $1,319.89 |
| 2025-06-30/07-06 | 23 | 60.9% | +$24,806.06 | $1,078.52 |
| 2025-07-07/07-13 | 35 | 62.9% | +$34,006.58 | $971.62 |
| 2025-07-14/07-20 | 34 | 41.2% | +$15,666.65 | $460.78 |
| 2025-07-21/07-27 | 30 | 53.3% | $-4,880.27 | $-162.68 |
| 2025-07-28/08-03 | 32 | 46.9% | $-12,325.75 | $-385.18 |
| 2025-08-04/08-10 | 29 | 37.9% | $-11,991.22 | $-413.49 |
| 2025-08-11/08-17 | 40 | 40.0% | +$13,297.91 | $310.61 |
| 2025-08-18/08-24 | 32 | 40.6% | $-7,020.30 | $-219.38 |
| 2025-08-25/08-31 | 31 | 45.2% | $-13,825.56 | $-445.99 |
| 2025-09-01/09-07 | 34 | 44.1% | $-3,506.58 | $-103.13 |
| 2025-09-08/09-14 | 33 | 42.4% | +$3,887.43 | $117.80 |
| 2025-09-15/09-21 | 36 | 52.8% | +$35,159.79 | $976.66 |
| 2025-09-22/09-28 | 32 | 37.5% | $-3,543.45 | $-110.73 |
| 2025-09-29/10-05 | 32 | 50.0% | +$1,944.10 | $60.75 |
| 2025-10-06/10-12 | 34 | 44.1% | +$5,322.79 | $156.55 |
| 2025-10-13/10-19 | 28 | 39.3% | $-10,960.64 | $-391.45 |
| 2025-10-20/10-26 | 33 | 51.5% | $-7,676.06 | $-232.61 |
| 2025-10-27/11-02 | 34 | 55.9% | +$47,331.26 | $1,392.10 |
| 2025-11-03/11-09 | 32 | 46.9% | $-5,190.09 | $-162.19 |
| 2025-11-10/11-16 | 31 | 51.6% | +$15,771.10 | $508.75 |
| 2025-11-17/11-23 | 32 | 62.5% | +$29,631.89 | $926.00 |
| 2025-11-24/11-30 | 39 | 38.5% | $-12,935.29 | $-331.67 |
| 2025-12-01/12-07 | 37 | 37.8% | $-4,747.26 | $-128.30 |
| 2025-12-08/12-14 | 34 | 52.9% | +$16,335.43 | $480.45 |
| 2025-12-15/12-21 | 30 | 53.3% | +$8,848.50 | $294.95 |
| 2025-12-22/12-28 | 20 | 45.0% | $-2,735.33 | $-136.77 |
| 2025-12-29/01-04 | 26 | 42.3% | +$2,426.69 | $93.33 |
| 2026-01-05/01-11 | 30 | 60.0% | +$35,527.63 | $1,184.25 |
| 2026-01-12/01-18 | 35 | 54.3% | +$43,271.31 | $1,236.32 |
| 2026-01-19/01-25 | 27 | 55.6% | +$42,300.09 | $1,566.67 |
| 2026-01-26/02-01 | 31 | 45.2% | +$10,766.58 | $347.31 |
| 2026-02-02/02-08 | 27 | 59.3% | +$31,706.20 | $1,174.30 |
| 2026-02-09/02-15 | 35 | 51.4% | +$28,339.72 | $809.71 |
| 2026-02-16/02-22 | 33 | 54.5% | +$40,295.93 | $1,221.09 |
| 2026-02-23/03-01 | 28 | 53.6% | +$20,203.17 | $721.54 |
| 2026-03-02/03-08 | 32 | 53.1% | +$30,563.00 | $955.09 |
| 2026-03-09/03-15 | 33 | 45.5% | +$13,985.30 | $423.80 |
| 2026-03-16/03-22 | 35 | 54.3% | +$43,888.39 | $1,253.95 |
| 2026-03-23/03-29 | 35 | 45.7% | $-10,044.69 | $-286.99 |
| 2026-03-30/04-05 | 6 | 50.0% | +$593.00 | $98.83 |
Weekly Performance — Most Recent 52 WeeksPerformance hebdomadaire — 52 dernières semaines
Net P&L by Week ($)
Win Rate by Week (%)
Monthly ResultsRésultats mensuels
Monthly Performance — (Mar 2005 – Mar 2026)Performance mensuelle — (mars 2005 – mars 2026)
42,040 individual trades across 253 calendar months of results. The vast majority of months are profitable. Losing months cluster around low-volatility periods and adverse macro events.
| Month | TradesTransactions | Win %Gain % | Net P&L ($)P&L net ($) | Avg $/TradeMoy. $/Transaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-03 | 100 | 46.0% | +$167.37 | $1.67 |
| 2005-04 | 142 | 43.0% | +$821.83 | $5.79 |
| 2005-05 | 130 | 43.1% | +$7,360.23 | $56.62 |
| 2005-06 | 137 | 54.7% | +$25,641.15 | $187.16 |
| 2005-07 | 134 | 46.3% | +$8,980.32 | $67.02 |
| 2005-08 | 153 | 46.4% | $-1,805.75 | $-11.80 |
| 2005-09 | 145 | 42.1% | $-1,404.91 | $-9.69 |
| 2005-10 | 146 | 42.5% | +$3,539.00 | $24.24 |
| 2005-11 | 136 | 44.1% | +$7,927.79 | $58.29 |
| 2005-12 | 119 | 42.0% | $-4,942.67 | $-41.54 |
| 2006-01 | 126 | 40.5% | $-6,429.33 | $-51.03 |
| 2006-02 | 131 | 40.5% | +$7,592.70 | $57.96 |
| 2006-03 | 150 | 44.7% | +$5,521.27 | $36.81 |
| 2006-04 | 129 | 45.7% | $-807.65 | $-6.26 |
| 2006-05 | 146 | 49.3% | +$38,712.24 | $265.15 |
| 2006-06 | 134 | 46.3% | +$9,553.38 | $71.29 |
| 2006-07 | 122 | 44.3% | +$42,858.19 | $351.30 |
| 2006-08 | 140 | 50.0% | +$24,668.05 | $176.20 |
| 2006-09 | 136 | 44.9% | +$66,166.90 | $486.52 |
| 2006-10 | 143 | 43.4% | $-7,934.39 | $-55.49 |
| 2006-11 | 145 | 42.1% | +$6,820.57 | $47.04 |
| 2006-12 | 124 | 47.6% | +$78,231.45 | $630.90 |
| 2007-01 | 147 | 44.2% | +$27,020.91 | $183.82 |
| 2007-02 | 125 | 36.0% | $-32,704.69 | $-261.64 |
| 2007-03 | 130 | 46.2% | +$45,341.62 | $348.78 |
| 2007-04 | 125 | 40.0% | $-33,623.03 | $-268.98 |
| 2007-05 | 137 | 38.7% | $-11,911.01 | $-86.94 |
| 2007-06 | 131 | 43.5% | $-15,965.20 | $-121.87 |
| 2007-07 | 135 | 43.0% | +$6,748.05 | $49.99 |
| 2007-08 | 139 | 48.2% | +$52,610.58 | $378.49 |
| 2007-09 | 131 | 50.4% | +$99,840.79 | $762.14 |
| 2007-10 | 152 | 52.6% | +$135,421.20 | $890.93 |
| 2007-11 | 136 | 45.6% | +$62,104.39 | $456.65 |
| 2007-12 | 128 | 50.8% | +$126,031.02 | $984.62 |
| 2008-01 | 153 | 47.7% | +$96,449.10 | $630.39 |
| 2008-02 | 145 | 46.2% | +$45,723.94 | $315.34 |
| 2008-03 | 163 | 48.5% | +$56,540.52 | $346.87 |
| 2008-04 | 140 | 48.6% | +$59,634.12 | $425.96 |
| 2008-05 | 141 | 46.1% | +$40,260.78 | $285.54 |
| 2008-06 | 140 | 46.4% | +$63,076.80 | $450.55 |
| 2008-07 | 142 | 45.1% | +$48,713.95 | $343.06 |
| 2008-08 | 142 | 54.2% | +$133,953.04 | $943.33 |
| 2008-09 | 147 | 53.7% | +$212,818.92 | $1,447.75 |
| 2008-10 | 135 | 45.9% | +$190,089.10 | $1,408.07 |
| 2008-11 | 138 | 46.4% | +$250,977.82 | $1,818.68 |
| 2008-12 | 140 | 52.9% | +$234,233.68 | $1,673.10 |
| 2009-01 | 148 | 55.4% | +$288,952.89 | $1,952.38 |
| 2009-02 | 145 | 46.9% | +$127,913.51 | $882.16 |
| 2009-03 | 152 | 56.6% | +$213,124.36 | $1,402.13 |
| 2009-04 | 157 | 48.4% | +$94,493.08 | $601.87 |
| 2009-05 | 165 | 51.5% | +$164,050.08 | $994.24 |
| 2009-06 | 169 | 52.1% | +$188,065.22 | $1,112.81 |
| 2009-07 | 161 | 58.4% | +$214,070.19 | $1,329.63 |
| 2009-08 | 154 | 44.2% | +$41,571.05 | $269.94 |
| 2009-09 | 141 | 48.2% | +$73,572.45 | $521.79 |
| 2009-10 | 154 | 50.0% | +$99,982.70 | $649.24 |
| 2009-11 | 161 | 46.0% | +$39,552.93 | $245.67 |
| 2009-12 | 162 | 46.9% | +$59,693.21 | $368.48 |
| 2010-01 | 135 | 50.4% | +$136,168.68 | $1,008.66 |
| 2010-02 | 137 | 48.9% | +$77,887.58 | $568.52 |
| 2010-03 | 155 | 49.7% | +$75,093.64 | $484.48 |
| 2010-04 | 151 | 42.4% | $-70,961.91 | $-469.95 |
| 2010-05 | 140 | 49.3% | +$114,958.43 | $821.13 |
| 2010-06 | 168 | 48.8% | +$54,049.53 | $321.72 |
| 2010-07 | 158 | 49.4% | +$73,884.60 | $467.62 |
| 2010-08 | 159 | 50.3% | +$84,661.43 | $532.46 |
| 2010-09 | 146 | 56.8% | +$137,297.71 | $940.40 |
| 2010-10 | 161 | 47.2% | +$41,771.34 | $259.45 |
| 2010-11 | 162 | 53.1% | +$91,999.40 | $567.90 |
| 2010-12 | 150 | 49.3% | +$100,366.13 | $669.11 |
| 2011-01 | 148 | 43.2% | $-16,710.36 | $-112.91 |
| 2011-02 | 145 | 51.0% | +$81,938.30 | $565.09 |
| 2011-03 | 156 | 45.5% | +$46,485.04 | $297.98 |
| 2011-04 | 133 | 48.1% | +$57,824.12 | $434.77 |
| 2011-05 | 151 | 56.3% | +$191,016.13 | $1,265.01 |
| 2011-06 | 159 | 49.1% | +$96,904.90 | $609.46 |
| 2011-07 | 142 | 50.0% | +$111,512.04 | $785.30 |
| 2011-08 | 146 | 50.0% | +$64,948.63 | $444.85 |
| 2011-09 | 149 | 50.3% | +$75,306.63 | $505.41 |
| 2011-10 | 155 | 43.9% | +$25,876.13 | $166.94 |
| 2011-11 | 148 | 52.0% | +$75,890.54 | $512.77 |
| 2011-12 | 133 | 48.9% | +$72,147.20 | $542.46 |
| 2012-01 | 142 | 52.8% | +$82,588.41 | $581.61 |
| 2012-02 | 147 | 46.9% | +$20,243.02 | $137.71 |
| 2012-03 | 150 | 52.0% | +$127,390.80 | $849.27 |
| 2012-04 | 160 | 40.0% | $-44,107.05 | $-275.67 |
| 2012-05 | 158 | 47.5% | +$10,266.04 | $64.97 |
| 2012-06 | 140 | 55.0% | +$141,094.61 | $1,007.82 |
| 2012-07 | 151 | 47.7% | +$43,451.42 | $287.76 |
| 2012-08 | 145 | 46.2% | +$28,849.93 | $198.97 |
| 2012-09 | 146 | 44.5% | $-24,988.87 | $-171.16 |
| 2012-10 | 136 | 47.1% | +$63,336.36 | $465.71 |
| 2012-11 | 122 | 47.5% | +$33,945.27 | $278.24 |
| 2012-12 | 116 | 49.1% | +$42,196.34 | $363.76 |
| 2013-01 | 138 | 47.1% | +$43,150.67 | $312.69 |
| 2013-02 | 106 | 57.5% | +$127,517.05 | $1,202.99 |
| 2013-03 | 128 | 46.9% | +$49,264.03 | $384.88 |
| 2013-04 | 146 | 47.3% | +$37,286.99 | $255.39 |
| 2013-05 | 146 | 50.7% | +$56,438.49 | $386.57 |
| 2013-06 | 153 | 52.9% | +$118,087.45 | $771.81 |
| 2013-07 | 151 | 51.7% | +$137,799.54 | $912.58 |
| 2013-08 | 150 | 44.7% | +$55,287.62 | $368.58 |
| 2013-09 | 141 | 46.8% | +$7,269.19 | $51.55 |
| 2013-10 | 149 | 50.3% | +$67,448.35 | $452.67 |
| 2013-11 | 131 | 48.9% | +$56,315.49 | $429.89 |
| 2013-12 | 134 | 51.5% | +$82,163.67 | $613.16 |
| 2014-01 | 143 | 50.3% | +$85,079.11 | $594.96 |
| 2014-02 | 123 | 48.0% | +$66,691.60 | $542.21 |
| 2014-03 | 137 | 49.6% | +$62,249.92 | $454.38 |
| 2014-04 | 120 | 55.0% | +$42,691.62 | $355.76 |
| 2014-05 | 129 | 44.2% | $-1,964.57 | $-15.23 |
| 2014-06 | 126 | 42.9% | +$4,219.76 | $33.49 |
| 2014-07 | 134 | 40.3% | +$20,309.10 | $151.56 |
| 2014-08 | 123 | 40.7% | $-52,892.28 | $-430.02 |
| 2014-09 | 140 | 40.7% | $-41,472.05 | $-296.23 |
| 2014-10 | 153 | 47.1% | +$50,270.73 | $328.57 |
| 2014-11 | 139 | 39.6% | $-53,082.69 | $-381.89 |
| 2014-12 | 144 | 47.9% | +$78,509.53 | $545.21 |
| 2015-01 | 141 | 53.2% | +$159,198.99 | $1,129.07 |
| 2015-02 | 136 | 52.9% | +$139,836.56 | $1,028.21 |
| 2015-03 | 159 | 46.5% | +$31,235.01 | $196.45 |
| 2015-04 | 149 | 53.7% | +$118,880.97 | $797.86 |
| 2015-05 | 150 | 50.0% | +$116,748.36 | $778.32 |
| 2015-06 | 144 | 52.8% | +$74,186.48 | $515.18 |
| 2015-07 | 154 | 48.7% | +$42,684.28 | $277.17 |
| 2015-08 | 138 | 45.7% | +$6,151.75 | $44.58 |
| 2015-09 | 147 | 40.1% | $-35,833.01 | $-243.76 |
| 2015-10 | 145 | 47.6% | +$31,632.98 | $218.16 |
| 2015-11 | 148 | 41.9% | $-7,363.35 | $-49.75 |
| 2015-12 | 145 | 47.6% | +$65,021.50 | $448.42 |
| 2016-01 | 142 | 49.3% | +$62,541.57 | $440.43 |
| 2016-02 | 143 | 49.7% | +$18,023.00 | $126.03 |
| 2016-03 | 168 | 53.6% | +$158,753.38 | $944.96 |
| 2016-04 | 154 | 47.4% | +$44,456.16 | $288.68 |
| 2016-05 | 158 | 48.7% | +$53,413.26 | $338.06 |
| 2016-06 | 147 | 46.3% | +$26,011.65 | $176.95 |
| 2016-07 | 138 | 42.0% | +$8,841.33 | $64.07 |
| 2016-08 | 156 | 49.4% | +$101,715.16 | $652.02 |
| 2016-09 | 154 | 46.8% | +$58,780.09 | $381.69 |
| 2016-10 | 140 | 43.6% | +$30,908.56 | $220.78 |
| 2016-11 | 159 | 48.4% | +$69,674.24 | $438.20 |
| 2016-12 | 125 | 48.8% | +$38,683.70 | $309.47 |
| 2017-01 | 137 | 47.4% | +$51,750.35 | $377.74 |
| 2017-02 | 137 | 54.7% | +$52,841.93 | $385.71 |
| 2017-03 | 148 | 44.6% | +$4,709.66 | $31.82 |
| 2017-04 | 127 | 40.2% | +$7,569.86 | $59.61 |
| 2017-05 | 144 | 50.7% | +$85,408.76 | $593.12 |
| 2017-06 | 134 | 48.5% | +$41,159.64 | $307.16 |
| 2017-07 | 142 | 38.0% | $-51,684.28 | $-363.97 |
| 2017-08 | 135 | 42.2% | $-6,067.76 | $-44.95 |
| 2017-09 | 141 | 48.9% | +$69,688.55 | $494.25 |
| 2017-10 | 140 | 41.4% | +$52,453.52 | $374.67 |
| 2017-11 | 141 | 51.8% | +$99,257.30 | $703.95 |
| 2017-12 | 109 | 40.4% | +$517.09 | $4.74 |
| 2018-01 | 150 | 52.0% | +$132,190.67 | $881.27 |
| 2018-02 | 145 | 46.9% | +$27,863.81 | $192.16 |
| 2018-03 | 151 | 44.4% | +$47,901.75 | $317.23 |
| 2018-04 | 146 | 37.7% | $-45,715.63 | $-313.12 |
| 2018-05 | 149 | 42.3% | +$20,749.82 | $139.26 |
| 2018-06 | 135 | 57.8% | +$168,409.52 | $1,247.48 |
| 2018-07 | 132 | 41.7% | +$13,668.73 | $103.55 |
| 2018-08 | 141 | 43.3% | $-16,682.38 | $-118.31 |
| 2018-09 | 128 | 49.2% | +$103,787.49 | $810.84 |
| 2018-10 | 159 | 40.3% | $-34,619.09 | $-217.73 |
| 2018-11 | 149 | 45.6% | +$108,300.80 | $726.85 |
| 2018-12 | 132 | 44.7% | +$24,885.87 | $188.53 |
| 2019-01 | 137 | 49.6% | +$120,073.54 | $876.45 |
| 2019-02 | 126 | 45.2% | +$55,148.95 | $437.69 |
| 2019-03 | 129 | 45.0% | +$27,694.00 | $214.68 |
| 2019-04 | 134 | 45.5% | +$45,247.00 | $337.66 |
| 2019-05 | 130 | 46.2% | +$52,356.82 | $402.74 |
| 2019-06 | 128 | 46.9% | +$2,818.85 | $22.02 |
| 2019-07 | 148 | 32.4% | $-68,150.30 | $-460.47 |
| 2019-08 | 132 | 48.5% | +$70,314.65 | $532.69 |
| 2019-09 | 126 | 46.8% | +$40,436.29 | $320.92 |
| 2019-10 | 133 | 46.6% | +$18,324.66 | $137.78 |
| 2019-11 | 135 | 43.7% | +$27,697.22 | $205.16 |
| 2019-12 | 120 | 33.3% | $-36,324.10 | $-302.70 |
| 2020-01 | 126 | 43.7% | $-11,124.25 | $-88.29 |
| 2020-02 | 123 | 52.8% | +$58,198.36 | $473.16 |
| 2020-03 | 127 | 51.2% | +$124,131.41 | $977.41 |
| 2020-04 | 135 | 55.6% | +$103,309.46 | $765.26 |
| 2020-05 | 149 | 47.7% | +$34,545.79 | $231.85 |
| 2020-06 | 153 | 51.6% | +$126,908.42 | $829.47 |
| 2020-07 | 168 | 48.8% | +$40,548.42 | $241.36 |
| 2020-08 | 143 | 49.0% | +$38,731.63 | $270.85 |
| 2020-09 | 154 | 51.9% | +$106,773.11 | $693.33 |
| 2020-10 | 145 | 44.1% | $-12,102.50 | $-83.47 |
| 2020-11 | 140 | 45.0% | $-19,917.51 | $-142.27 |
| 2020-12 | 132 | 40.9% | $-59,079.21 | $-447.57 |
| 2021-01 | 127 | 46.5% | +$20,305.77 | $159.89 |
| 2021-02 | 132 | 54.5% | +$110,899.13 | $840.14 |
| 2021-03 | 142 | 50.7% | +$115,013.54 | $809.95 |
| 2021-04 | 139 | 44.6% | $-25,891.01 | $-186.27 |
| 2021-05 | 145 | 49.0% | +$102,118.84 | $704.27 |
| 2021-06 | 149 | 40.9% | $-27,063.39 | $-181.63 |
| 2021-07 | 148 | 46.6% | +$62,647.55 | $423.29 |
| 2021-08 | 141 | 44.7% | +$17,446.36 | $123.73 |
| 2021-09 | 147 | 46.3% | +$75,179.17 | $511.42 |
| 2021-10 | 153 | 40.5% | $-17,570.97 | $-114.84 |
| 2021-11 | 148 | 43.2% | $-30,674.31 | $-207.26 |
| 2021-12 | 130 | 47.7% | +$40,918.92 | $314.76 |
| 2022-01 | 129 | 45.7% | +$20,932.27 | $162.27 |
| 2022-02 | 130 | 46.2% | +$79,891.47 | $614.55 |
| 2022-03 | 164 | 50.6% | +$99,991.86 | $609.71 |
| 2022-04 | 132 | 43.9% | +$17,439.63 | $132.12 |
| 2022-05 | 157 | 49.7% | +$108,227.38 | $689.35 |
| 2022-06 | 151 | 49.0% | +$108,317.60 | $717.34 |
| 2022-07 | 153 | 43.1% | $-6,653.68 | $-43.49 |
| 2022-08 | 148 | 50.7% | +$93,508.82 | $631.82 |
| 2022-09 | 156 | 55.1% | +$140,366.60 | $899.79 |
| 2022-10 | 158 | 48.1% | +$61,937.53 | $392.01 |
| 2022-11 | 180 | 46.7% | +$62,378.24 | $346.55 |
| 2022-12 | 146 | 46.6% | +$65,783.76 | $450.57 |
| 2023-01 | 150 | 51.3% | +$114,884.01 | $765.89 |
| 2023-02 | 142 | 40.8% | $-28,107.27 | $-197.94 |
| 2023-03 | 163 | 49.7% | +$113,472.17 | $696.15 |
| 2023-04 | 125 | 40.0% | $-57,397.25 | $-459.18 |
| 2023-05 | 164 | 48.8% | +$73,465.79 | $447.96 |
| 2023-06 | 143 | 51.0% | +$78,089.08 | $546.08 |
| 2023-07 | 139 | 50.4% | +$100,341.47 | $721.88 |
| 2023-08 | 154 | 46.1% | +$44,415.54 | $288.41 |
| 2023-09 | 144 | 43.1% | +$52,135.98 | $362.06 |
| 2023-10 | 150 | 45.3% | +$20,370.57 | $135.80 |
| 2023-11 | 150 | 48.0% | +$84,562.08 | $563.75 |
| 2023-12 | 124 | 49.2% | +$68,452.34 | $552.04 |
| 2024-01 | 145 | 40.7% | +$8,730.61 | $60.21 |
| 2024-02 | 124 | 39.5% | $-6,997.94 | $-56.43 |
| 2024-03 | 132 | 47.7% | +$14,111.45 | $106.90 |
| 2024-04 | 141 | 40.4% | +$1,464.72 | $10.39 |
| 2024-05 | 140 | 52.1% | +$93,647.70 | $668.91 |
| 2024-06 | 121 | 43.8% | +$45,016.31 | $372.04 |
| 2024-07 | 146 | 43.2% | +$35,900.44 | $245.89 |
| 2024-08 | 145 | 40.7% | +$16,309.48 | $112.48 |
| 2024-09 | 135 | 46.7% | +$41,961.89 | $310.83 |
| 2024-10 | 150 | 48.7% | +$64,649.90 | $431.00 |
| 2024-11 | 127 | 42.5% | +$239.50 | $1.89 |
| 2024-12 | 136 | 46.3% | +$11,571.27 | $85.08 |
| 2025-01 | 133 | 50.4% | +$72,132.01 | $542.35 |
| 2025-02 | 126 | 49.2% | +$23,208.04 | $184.19 |
| 2025-03 | 138 | 53.6% | +$87,589.73 | $634.71 |
| 2025-04 | 153 | 47.7% | +$62,918.49 | $411.23 |
| 2025-05 | 165 | 39.4% | $-42,065.48 | $-254.94 |
| 2025-06 | 128 | 54.7% | +$86,797.56 | $678.11 |
| 2025-07 | 144 | 52.1% | +$59,620.66 | $414.03 |
| 2025-08 | 137 | 41.6% | $-19,054.94 | $-139.09 |
| 2025-09 | 148 | 43.9% | +$19,194.34 | $129.69 |
| 2025-10 | 146 | 49.3% | +$45,868.51 | $314.17 |
| 2025-11 | 136 | 49.3% | +$30,173.40 | $221.86 |
| 2025-12 | 140 | 47.1% | +$26,067.40 | $186.20 |
| 2026-01 | 129 | 51.9% | +$117,297.84 | $909.29 |
| 2026-02 | 123 | 54.5% | +$122,426.78 | $995.34 |
| 2026-03 | 142 | 50.0% | +$85,731.64 | $603.74 |
Monthly P&L — Mar 2005 – Mar 2026 (253 months)P&L mensuel — Mars 2005 – Mars 2026 (253 mois)
Yearly ResultsRésultats annuels
Year-by-Year Performance (2005 – 2026)Performance année par année (2005 – 2026)
All 20 calendar years (plus 2 partial years) produced positive net P&L. 2008 was the strongest year — the GFC created extreme AUD/USD volatility that the strategy exploited. 2017 was the weakest with AUD sideways at low volatility.
| Year | TradesTransactions | Avg Win %Moy. gain % | Net P&L ($)P&L net ($) | Avg $/TradeMoy. $/Transaction | CommentCommentaire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006* | 1,042 | 75.2% | +$6,128 | $5.88 | Partial year (Mar–Dec). Low PnL; strategy establishing baseline on AUD/USD. |
| 2007 | 1,289 | 75.8% | +$467,342 | $362.56 | Strong breakout year. AUD/USD bull trend. Best avg/trade in the early period. |
| 2008 | 1,390 | 74.9% | +$1,354,272 | $974.30 | 🏆 Global Financial Crisis. Extreme AUD volatility — highest P&L year. |
| 2009 | 1,385 | 76.3% | +$1,266,549 | $914.48 | Post-GFC recovery. AUD surged from 0.60 to 0.93. Sustained momentum. |
| 2010 | 1,406 | 77.9% | +$937,095 | $666.50 | RBA rate hike cycle + China commodity demand. AUD near parity. |
| 2011 | 1,345 | 76.9% | +$726,402 | $540.08 | AUD/USD reached record 1.10. Strategy thrives in trend-rich environment. |
| 2012 | 1,329 | 78.4% | +$793,547 | $597.10 | AUD consolidation. Solid performance despite lower volatility. |
| 2013 | 1,336 | 76.6% | +$789,938 | $591.27 | Fed taper tantrum. AUD declined from 1.05. Divergent moves captured. |
| 2014 | 1,281 | 74.8% | +$640,998 | $500.39 | AUD continued decline. Lower frequency but consistent positive PnL. |
| 2015 | 1,338 | 79.0% | +$1,130,637 | $845.02 | China slowdown fears. AUD fell sharply — momentum strategy benefits. |
| 2016 | 1,374 | 77.0% | +$680,174 | $495.03 | AUD rangebound post-Fed rate hike. Moderate environment. |
| 2017 | 1,312 | 73.8% | +$267,847 | $204.15 | Lowest annual P&L. AUD sideways, low volatility year. |
| 2018 | 1,232 | 79.9% | +$676,162 | $548.83 | US-China trade war. AUD weakness — strategy adapts well. |
| 2019 | 1,315 | 75.6% | +$606,551 | $461.26 | RBA rate cuts. AUD gradually weakened. Steady positive results. |
| 2020 | 1,345 | 77.4% | +$812,586 | $604.15 | COVID crash then recovery. AUD from 0.55 to 0.77. Volatility = opportunity. |
| 2021 | 1,308 | 77.3% | +$471,938 | $360.81 | Post-COVID recovery. AUD rangy. Moderate performance. |
| 2022 | 1,346 | 77.7% | +$656,082 | $487.43 | Fed aggressive rate hikes. AUD volatile. Good strategy year. |
| 2023 | 1,308 | 79.2% | +$875,535 | $669.37 | Best recent full year. Strong directional moves on AUD/USD. |
| 2024 | 1,286 | 75.1% | +$578,554 | $449.89 | AUD under pressure from USD strength. Positive but below average. |
| 2025 | 1,359 | 76.3% | +$618,984 | $455.47 | Mixed environment. Strategy remains profitable. |
| 2026* | 267 | 78.8% | +$124,040 | $464.57 | Partial year (Jan–Mar). On pace for strong year. |
Yearly Results ChartsGraphiques des résultats annuels
Cumulative Equity — Annual Steps ($)
Annual Net P&L ($)
Win Rate by Year (%)
Trade Count by Year
Avg P&L per Trade by Year ($)
*Year 2005 and 2026 are partial years.*Les années 2005 et 2026 sont des années partielles.
SeasonalitySaisonnalité
Monthly SeasonalitySaisonnalité mensuelle
All 12 calendar months are profitable. May and October lead on total and average P&L. December is the weakest — consistent with reduced liquidity and holiday-period range compression typical for AUD/USD.
| Month | YrsAns | TradesTransactions | Win %Gain % | Total Net P&L ($)P&L net total ($) | Avg / Year ($)Moy. / Année ($) | Avg / Trade ($)Moy. / Transaction ($) | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JanuaryJanvier | 20 | 2,191 | 77.2% | $1,055,303 | $52,765 | $481.65 | 1.476 |
| FebruaryFévrier | 20 | 2,100 | 76.8% | $1,152,952 | $57,648 | $549.02 | 1.571 |
| MarchMars | 21 | 2,320 | 77.2% | $1,378,368 | $65,637 | $594.12 | 1.663 |
| AprilAvril | 20 | 2,184 | 77.6% | $1,239,258 | $61,963 | $567.43 | 1.635 |
| MayMai | 20 | 2,273 | 78.6% | $1,461,277 | $73,064 | $642.88 | 1.784 |
| JuneJuin | 20 | 2,190 | 76.5% | $1,210,771 | $60,539 | $552.86 | 1.614 |
| JulyJuillet | 20 | 2,295 | 76.4% | $1,110,319 | $55,516 | $483.80 | 1.524 |
| AugustAoût | 20 | 2,242 | 76.2% | $1,110,850 | $55,543 | $495.47 | 1.515 |
| SeptemberSeptembre | 20 | 2,153 | 76.9% | $1,044,173 | $52,209 | $484.99 | 1.495 |
| OctoberOctobre | 20 | 2,285 | 76.1% | $1,505,984 | $75,299 | $659.07 | 1.664 |
| NovemberNovembre | 20 | 2,198 | 76.8% | $1,340,991 | $67,050 | $610.10 | 1.644 |
| DecemberDécembre | 20 | 2,162 | 74.4% | $871,115 | $43,556 | $402.92 | 1.408 |
| TOTAL | — | 26,593 | 76.7% | $14,481,361 | $60,066 | $544.56 | 1.583 |
Seasonality ChartsGraphiques de saisonnalité
Total Net P&L by Month ($)
Profit Factor by Month
Avg P&L / Trade by Month ($)
Win Rate by Month — Radar
Avg Annual P&L by Calendar Month ($)
Appendix 1Annexe 1
GBP/USD — Strategy Validation
GBP/USD — Validation de la stratégie
The strategy works on other pairs. Here is a summary of the GBP/USD pair tested over the same period (Mar 2005 – Mar 2026 · 21 years). Starting from $5,000 the strategy produced $3.35M in net profit — confirming the edge is not pair-specific.
La stratégie fonctionne sur d’autres paires. Voici un résumé de la paire GBP/USD testée sur la même période (Mar 2005 – Mar 2026 · 21 ans). En partant de 5 000 $, la stratégie a généré $3.35M de profit net.
Net ProfitProfit net
$3.35M
+66,927%
CAGR
36.18%
Compound annualAnnuel composé
Win RateTaux de gain
46.49%
19,194 wins / 41,288 trades
Profit FactorFacteur de profit
1.14
Acceptable >1.3
Sharpe RatioRatio de Sharpe
9.66
Excellent >2
Max DrawdownRetrait maximal
−$197,131
-37.09% of peak
Calmar RatioRatio de Calmar
16.98
Excellent >3
Months StoppedMois arrêtés
4
DD risk management
Annual Net P&L — GBP/USD ($)
Cumulative Equity — GBP/USD ($)
Total P&L by Calendar Month ($)
Win Rate by Calendar Month (%)
*2005 and 2026 are partial years. Same $5,000 starting capital.
Appendix 2Annexe 2
EUR/USD — Strategy Validation
EUR/USD — Validation de la stratégie
The strategy works on other pairs. Here is a summary of the EUR/USD pair tested over the same period (Mar 2005 – Mar 2026 · 21 years). Starting from $5,000 the strategy produced $5.78M in net profit — confirming the edge is not pair-specific.
La stratégie fonctionne sur d’autres paires. Voici un résumé de la paire EUR/USD testée sur la même période (Mar 2005 – Mar 2026 · 21 ans). En partant de 5 000 $, la stratégie a généré $5.78M de profit net.
Net ProfitProfit net
$5.78M
+115,552%
CAGR
39.75%
Compound annualAnnuel composé
Win RateTaux de gain
46.54%
19,004 wins / 40,837 trades
Profit FactorFacteur de profit
1.18
Acceptable >1.3
Sharpe RatioRatio de Sharpe
11.30
Excellent >2
Max DrawdownRetrait maximal
−$188,777
-50.95% of peak
Calmar RatioRatio de Calmar
30.61
Excellent >3
Months StoppedMois arrêtés
11
DD risk management
Annual Net P&L — EUR/USD ($)
Cumulative Equity — EUR/USD ($)
Total P&L by Calendar Month ($)
Win Rate by Calendar Month (%)
*2005 and 2026 are partial years. Same $5,000 starting capital.
Appendix 3Annexe 3
Valuation ScenariosScénarios de valeur
Model AssumptionsHypothèses du modèle
Strategies: AUD/USD + EUR/USD + GBP/USD combined into one company accountStratégies : AUD/USD + EUR/USD + GBP/USD combinées dans un seul compte
Starting capital: $5,000 per strategy → $15,000 totalCapital de départ : 5 000 $/stratégie → 15 000 $ total
Period: AUD/USD · EUR/USD · GBP/USD — Mar 2005 – Mar 2026Période : AUD/USD · EUR/USD · GBP/USD — mars 2005 – mars 2026
Expenses: $50,000/yr deducted monthly ($4,167/month from company cash)Dépenses : 50 000 $/an déduits mensuellement (4 167 $/mois)
Income tax: Quebec corporate rates — 12.2% on first $500K net active income/yr; 26.5% above; passive income 50.17% — paid quarterlyImpôt : Taux corporatifs québécois — 12,2 % jusqu'à 500 K$ de revenu net actif/an; 26,5 % au-dessus; revenu passif 50,17 % — payé trimestriellement
Passive income: 5%/yr earned on company equity above $600,000Revenu passif : 5 %/an sur les capitaux propres dépassant 600 000 $
Dividends: Paid at year-end only — no intra-year withdrawalsDividendes : Versés uniquement en fin d'année — aucun retrait en cours d'année
NPV: PV(annual dividends) + PV(terminal equity), discounted at 10% and 15%VAN : VA(dividendes annuels) + VA(capitaux terminaux), actualisés à 10 % et 15 %
| MetricMétrique | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting capitalCapital de départ | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 |
| Account capPlafond | — | — | $1,000,000 |
| Cap first reachedPlafond atteint | N/A | N/A | 2008 |
| Final company equityCapitaux propres finals | $33.44M | $11.82M | $1.00M |
| Total dividends paidDividendes totaux versés | $0 | $2.11M | $4.50M |
| Total tax paidImpôts totaux payés | $15.28M | $5.16M | $1.57M |
| Total expenses (~20yr)Dépenses totales (~20 ans) | ~$1,050K | ~$1,050K | ~$1,050K |
| NPV @ 10% | $4.52M | $2.74M | $3.05M |
| NPV @ 15% | $1.78M | $1.54M | $2.49M |
Why C wins at higher discount rates: Scenario C distributes large dividends early — the $1M cap is hit in 2008, after which the company pays out $100K–$2.4M every year. Cash received in years 2–5 is worth far more than cash 21 years away at high discount rates. Scenario A's $33.44M terminal equity discounted at 20% over 21 years equals only $727K today — barely more than Scenario C's NPV.
Pourquoi C gagne à des taux d'actualisation élevés : Le scénario C distribue d'importants dividendes dès le début — le plafond de 1 M$ est atteint en 2008, après quoi l'entreprise verse 100 K$–2,4 M$ chaque année. Les liquidités reçues en années 2–5 valent bien plus à taux élevé. Les $33.44M terminaux du scénario A actualisés à 20 % sur 20 ans ne valent que $727K aujourd'hui.
Annual Cashflow Detail — Scenario C ($1M Cap) — 3 Strategies Combined Détail annuel — Scénario C (plafond 1 M$) — 3 stratégies combinées
| YearAnnée | Gross P&LP&L brut | Passive Inc.Rev. passif | ExpensesDépenses | TaxImpôt | Year-End DividendDividende fin d'année | Yr-End EquityCapitaux fin d'année |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | $ 215,002 | $ 0 | $ 41,667 | $ 22,077 | $ 0 | $ 166,257 |
| 2007 | $ 1,030,906 | $ 4,364 | $ 50,000 | $ 202,179 | $ 0 | $ 949,349 |
| 2008 | $ 3,201,657 | $ 73,958 | $ 50,000 | $ 800,794 | $ 2,374,170 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2009 | $ 955,369 | $ 43,699 | $ 50,000 | $ 190,347 | $ 758,722 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2010 | $ 415,495 | $ 29,663 | $ 50,000 | $ 59,472 | $ 335,686 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2011 | $ 281,940 | $ 25,289 | $ 50,000 | $ 40,984 | $ 216,245 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2012 | $ 157,140 | $ 23,893 | $ 50,000 | $ 25,097 | $ 105,937 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2013 | $ 147,775 | $ 23,092 | $ 50,000 | $ 23,514 | $ 97,354 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2014 | $ 113,273 | $ 22,461 | $ 50,000 | $ 18,988 | $ 66,746 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2015 | $ 191,124 | $ 24,289 | $ 50,000 | $ 29,403 | $ 136,010 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2016 | $ 124,206 | $ 22,579 | $ 50,000 | $ 20,606 | $ 76,179 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2017 | $ 57,027 | $ 20,941 | $ 50,000 | $ 12,663 | $ 15,305 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2018 | $ 99,783 | $ 21,486 | $ 50,000 | $ 16,853 | $ 54,416 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2019 | $ 85,599 | $ 21,529 | $ 50,000 | $ 15,144 | $ 41,984 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2020 | $ 112,135 | $ 21,884 | $ 50,000 | $ 18,840 | $ 65,179 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2021 | $ 56,879 | $ 20,803 | $ 50,000 | $ 11,907 | $ 15,775 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2022 | $ 84,983 | $ 20,945 | $ 50,000 | $ 14,846 | $ 41,081 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2023 | $ 85,691 | $ 21,432 | $ 50,000 | $ 15,107 | $ 42,016 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2024 | $ 61,424 | $ 20,733 | $ 50,000 | $ 12,043 | $ 20,114 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2025 | $ 76,991 | $ 21,564 | $ 50,000 | $ 14,375 | $ 34,180 | $ 1,000,000 |
| 2026 | $ 11,582 | $ 5,054 | $ 12,500 | $ 2,536 | $ 0 | $ 1,001,600 |
| TOTAL | $ 7,565,982 | $ 489,658 | $1,004,167 | $1,567,774 | $ 4,497,098 | $1.00M |
Account Equity by ScenarioÉquité du compte par scénario
Cumulative Cash DistributedLiquidités cumulées distribuées
Total Wealth (Account + Cash)Richesse totale (compte + liquidités)
Appendix 1Annexe 1
System ArchitectureArchitecture du système
Logical architecture of the automated algorithmic trading system: Debian 13 VPS, NGINX web gateway, Python adapter for the broker API, supervised by Supervisor and monitored by Monit.Architecture logique du système de trading algorithmique automatisé : VPS Debian 13, passerelle NGINX, adaptateur Python pour l'API courtier, supervisé par Supervisor et Monit.
DisclaimerAvis important
Disclaimer & LimitationsAvertissement & limites
Important DisclaimerAvertissement important
This report and all financial projections, valuations, scenario analyses and NPV calculations contained herein have been prepared to the best of our ability using realistic assumptions based on historical backtest data. This report has not been independently audited or verified by any third party. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information presented.
Ce rapport et toutes les projections financières qu'il contient ont été préparés au mieux de nos capacités en utilisant des hypothèses réalistes fondées sur des données historiques. Ce rapport n'a pas été audité ni vérifié de manière indépendante par un tiers. Nous ne faisons aucune déclaration ni garantie quant à l'exactitude, l'exhaustivité ou la fiabilité des informations présentées.
Backtest LimitationsLimites du backtesting
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Backtests are conducted on historical data and do not account for future market regime changes, liquidity constraints, slippage, broker execution risk, or unforeseen macroeconomic events. Live trading results may differ materially from backtested results.
Les performances passées ne sont pas indicatives des résultats futurs. Les backtests sont réalisés sur des données historiques et ne tiennent pas compte des changements futurs de régime de marché, des contraintes de liquidité, du glissement, ni des événements macroéconomiques imprévus. Les résultats réels peuvent différer sensiblement.
Financial ProjectionsProjections financières
All NPV calculations, scenario analyses and investor/owner valuations are illustrative projections based on assumed discount rates and continuation of historical return distributions. Actual returns, cashflows and valuations may differ significantly. No guarantee of any return is expressed or implied.
Tous les calculs de VAN, analyses de scénarios et évaluations sont des projections illustratives fondées sur des taux d'actualisation supposés. Les rendements, flux et évaluations réels peuvent différer de manière significative. Aucune garantie de rendement n'est exprimée ou implicite.
No LiabilityAbsence de responsabilité
Neither the author nor any affiliated party shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or consequential damages arising from use of or reliance on this report. Recipients should conduct their own due diligence and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
Ni l'auteur ni aucune partie affiliée ne saurait être tenu responsable de tout dommage direct, indirect ou consécutif découlant de l'utilisation de ce rapport. Les destinataires doivent effectuer leur propre diligence et consulter un conseiller indépendant avant toute décision d'investissement.
Not AuditedNon audité
The trading results, performance statistics and financial calculations in this report have not been audited, verified or certified by any independent accounting firm, financial regulator or third-party auditor. All figures are self-reported and based on internal records and backtesting software outputs.
Les résultats de trading, statistiques de performance et calculs financiers n'ont pas été audités, vérifiés ou certifiés par un cabinet comptable indépendant ni un auditeur tiers. Tous les chiffres sont auto-déclarés et fondés sur des enregistrements internes.
Confidentiality: This document is prepared for discussion and information purposes only. The information herein does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product.
Confidentialité : Ce document est préparé uniquement à des fins de discussion et d'information. Les informations contenues ne constituent pas une offre de vente ni une sollicitation d'achat d'un titre ou produit d'investissement.
About the Business OwnerÀ propos du propriétaire
Mario Bourassa
A graduate in actuarial science (applied mathematics) from Laval University, Mario Bourassa started his career in the insurance industry but quickly steered his career toward information technology, joining DWL, IBM and then Prolifics. Over the years, he took on senior roles in analysis, development, and project management across a range of industries in Master Data Management.Diplômé en sciences actuarielles (mathématiques appliquées) de l'Université Laval, Mario Bourassa a débuté sa carrière dans l'industrie de l'assurance avant de s'orienter vers les technologies de l'information, rejoignant DWL, IBM puis Prolifics. Au fil des années, il a occupé des postes de direction en analyse, développement et gestion de projet dans diverses industries, notamment en gestion des données de référence (MDM).
Mario had always envisioned a company that would operate 24 hours a day, be fully automated, and operate without inventory or a distribution network. Four years ago, he began turning that vision into reality.Mario a toujours eu la vision d'une entreprise fonctionnant 24 heures sur 24, entièrement automatisée, sans inventaire ni réseau de distribution. Il y a quatre ans, il a commencé à concrétiser cette vision.
The results of the strategy and architecture presented in this document are the culmination of four years of development, testing, and refinement, built on a foundation of rigorous mathematical and engineering discipline.Les résultats de la stratégie et de l'architecture présentés dans ce document sont l'aboutissement de quatre années de développement, de tests et de perfectionnement, reposant sur une rigueur mathématique et une discipline d'ingénierie solides.